Written by Chris Bailey | 05 February 2012
Posted in Comment - Sport

Tom Brady. Photography: Keith Allison 

Winners and losers are often decided on the finest of margins. All it may need is a lapse in concentration, a miscalculation, or a pang of nerves that sets the victors apart from the victims. Testaments of this can be found in the NFL’s Divisional Championship round last weekend, in which mistakes in both games abruptly ended the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers quest for the Superbowl. Billy Cundiff was the scapegoat at Baltimore when a comfortable looking field goal attempt turned sour in a bid to send the game against the New England Patriots into overtime, whilst Kyle Williams of the 49ers fumbled a punt – not once, but twice – to gift turnovers to an all too grateful New York Giants side who made sure both errors were further punished with game-winning points.

No sooner did the dust settle in either stadium before critics and fans alike trampled over the internet to engage in a bit of revisionism. Apparently, Joe Flacco has never been a good enough quarterback to lead the Ravens through the playoffs, and their oft-famed defence was ripe for the taking, with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis bumbling through playoff games as shadows of their past glory. And as for San Francisco? In Alex Smith they have a quarterback, who, whilst showing a few shoots of growth over the last year, will always be mired in mediocrity - especially when their receivers have palms coated in grease.

OK – perhaps the critical fallout hasn’t been quite as drastic as that – but many are still in intent on scrutinising the minutiae of each failed drive and down when the simple answer is hovering in the corner, waiting for that eureka moment: if not for those agonisingly crucial mistakes, we would most likely be sitting in anticipation for a Super Bowl consisting of two different teams.

The simple answer will never be the go-to route for the NFL analysts, of course, as jobs aren’t doled out to anyone who can state the obvious. Yet whenever someone pipes up with the 49ers lack of third down conversions, or how the Patriots defence has really stepped up to the plate in the playoffs, one can’t help being gnawed at by the fact that it would have all been an irrelevance if not for two (technically three) heart-in-mouth moments from two fallible human beings. A team game American Football may be, but however noble an idea collective responsibility sounds, the thought that you are only as strong as your weakest individual link rings truer.

Now, at the risk of committing blatant hypocrisy I’ll say this: the better teams won. The Giants and the Patriots were better than their respective opponents going into last week’s action, and they’re still the better teams coming out of it. Wait – don’t tear your hair out (or simply close your browser) just yet – let me explain why, and give you a prediction as to which team will be eventually crowned champions.

The New England Patriots. A franchise that is synonymous with the name of Tom Brady. In fact, they are a franchise that would never have tasted Super Bowl success if not for Tom Brady. But, at the Gillette Stadium last weekend, the New England Patriots won despite Tom Brady.

It is a statement that Brady admitted himself in the post-match celebratory hullabaloo, who “sucked” for a total of 239 yards, two interceptions, and no passing touchdowns. It was like breaching a parallel universe, in which Joe Flacco 2.0 lorded over the usually irrepressible Brady. However, if that is Brady’s bottom level, it is telling that the Patriots still managed to penetrate an impermeable Ravens defence for 23 points. When their premier man went missing, New England dug in and hung in to stick around for the morose tale of Billy Cundiff.

But don’t expect Tom Brady to be stuck revving in first gear when the Super Bowl madness reaches Indianapolis next Sunday. He knows that he survived by the skin of his teeth (or perhaps, the pigskin that Mr Cundiff shanked to the left of the goalposts) and will be chomping at the bit to make personal amends. He is the type of character that when knocked down, makes sure he returns the punch with added venom – which will be needed if he is to evade the Giants’ formidable pass rush and sling it downfield to Messrs. Gronkowski and Hernandez.

So, after that literary massaging of the Patriots, do I believe the stars are aligned for a New England plundering of the Lombardi trophy? No. It’s going to New York. And here’s why.

The 2007 Super Bowl winners were no one’s pick to make a dent in the postseason picture. Their topsy-turvy divisional battle with the Dallas Cowboys in the regular season resembled, rather than a valiant fight for a playoff berth, two drunks in thrift store overcoats  staggering towards the nearest boozer. They lost twice to a Redskins team that only managed to pick up a smattering of victories, and apart from a few choice performances did not look like a unit that was cohesive enough to stymie the NFL’s elite. And even if they were to overcome Atlanta Falcons in the Wildcard round, the near-invincible Green Bay Packers would be lying in wait; the only question for the Packers being which colour toy they would have the delight in ripping apart.

Well. How often do the playoffs ever truly revert to regular season form? The New York Giants not only brushed aside a free-scoring Falcons side 24-2, but it was something approaching a trouncing when they rolled up onto the Lambeau turf and overcame the Packers 37-20; a slap to the face of the reigning Super Bowl champions on their own front doorstep.

Now, the margins may have been tighter against San Francisco – an overtime field goal deciding this particular batch of victor and victim – but there is reason to believe that the New York Giants possess a team without any major weaknesses. Their best laid plans have come to fruition in the playoffs, with a fully matured Eli Manning at quarterback supplying a triumvirate of Cruz, Nicks and Manningham out wide. And hell, even the lumbering tight end Bear Pascoe managed to score a touchdown last Sunday. Their run game is solid if slightly lacking, but it is has reaped results in the postseason and is not a part of the offense that they have to rely on.

And, even if the New England Patriots can boast a bounty of attacking talent that rivals the Giants, there is a clear winner in defence.  Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and the precocious Jason Pierre-Paul form a dominant defensive line that is sure to overwhelm Tom Brady at some point next Sunday. The D-line’s success seems to have sparked a domino effect through to the secondary, too, making vital blocks and interceptions that no one could have foreseen earlier on in the season.

Will it be enough to stop Brady? Make no mistake – he will plot ways to break through the Giants during the course of three hours. But in terms of outdueling an on-song Manning, fully armed with a plethora of options to aim for against a rickety Patriots defence, it is tempting to believe that it will be the boys from the Big Apple who emerge with the silverware.

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